Our recently completed survey shows Phil Murphy in a strong position five weeks from Election Day. Murphy has a 30 point lead over John Wisniewski, his closest opponent, who is only getting 7% of the vote. The poll also shows overwhelming support for Murphy’s 100% clean energy proposal – to have the state relying exclusively on clean energy sources by the year 2050.
Murphy’s double-digit lead extends across all major demographics including race, gender, age and geography. He is particularly strong among the most regular primary voters voting in two or more of the last three offyear primaries (44%), liberal Democrats (45%), and white college-educated voters (41%).
While 49% of the primary electorate is undecided, it will be hard for any other candidate to emerge from the pack to challenge Murphy. None of the other candidates are in double digits, meaning that it would take a big shift all to one challenger’s benefit.
Moreover, Murphy’s strong image makes a large break of undecideds against him unlikely. His favorability ratings are more than 10 times his unfavorable ratings (47% favorable, 4% unfavorable), considerably better than his two closest opponents, Wisniewski (24% favorable, 6% unfavorable) and Johnson (11% favorable, 4% unfavorable). Even among those voting for other candidates or still undecided, Murphy’s image is decidedly net favorable (24% favorable, 6% unfavorable).
Much of the Democratic primary electorate considers themselves environmentalists. When asked to use a 0 to 10 scale to indicate whether the word “environmentalist” describes them, almost half (49%) give themselves an 8 or higher (only 7% give themselves a 4 or lower).
Murphy’s 100% clean energy plan is overwhelmingly popular. Eighty-six percent (86%) support his plan to require New Jersey to get 100% of its energy from clean sources by 2050, including 63% who strongly support this plan. Only 7% oppose it. Indeed, the 100% clean energy plan is quite popular among undecideds (84% support), potentially playing an important part in winning them over.
Though 49% are undecided, Murphy is well positioned heading into May. He enjoys a strong image, a large lead, and a popular 100% clean energy plan, giving him clear advantages for the final stretch.
The Mellman Group conducted a statewide survey of 600 likely 2017 Democratic primary voters based on vote history. The poll was conducted by live interviewers over the telephone from April 26-30, 2017 using a sample pulled from a registered voter file. The margin of error for this survey is +/-4.0 percentage points statewide at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is larger for subgroups.